Archive for the ‘Predictions’ Category

PREDICTION WEDNESDAY: Jer’s 2011-12 Playoff Picture/Team Rankings (And Last Season’s Results)

For the past two years, every Wednesday before the start of the season I have posted my prediction for how the playoff picture would look at the end of the regular season (here and here). The first year I did it, well, I probably could have done a better job. Last year, the results were…. wait, I never took a look back at last season’s predictions? Fuck, am I lazy. Okay then, in today’s post I’ll give you both this season’s predictions, and the results from last season.

I was hoping “Prediction Wednesday” would catch on, but it never did. I am a horrible trend starter. However, feel free to chime in with your own predictions on our forums.

Western Conference   Eastern Conference
1 Vancouver Canucks   1 Washington Capitals
2 San Jose Sharks   2 Boston Bruins
3 Chicago Blackhawks   3 Philadelphia Flyers
4 Detrioit Red Wings   4 Tampa Bay Lightning
5 Los Angeles Kings   5 Montreal Canadiens
6 Anaheim Ducks   6 Buffalo Sabres
7 Nashville Predators   7 Pittsburgh Penguins
8 Minnesota Wild   8 Ottawa Senators
9 Calgary Flames   9 New Jersey Devils
10 Phoenix Coyotes   10 New York Rangers
11 Dallas Stars   11 Winnipeg Jets
12 Colorado Avalanche   12 Carolina Hurricanes
13 Edmonton Oilers   13 Florida Panthers
14 St Louis Blues   14 Toronto Maple Leafs
15 Columbus Blue Jackets   15 New York Islanders

Haha, you’re totally pissed about where I placed your team. Deal with it, because you’ll feel even worse at the end of the year when I am right.

After the jump, I’ll look at the predictions I made before last season and how things really ended up. (more…)

Jer’s Western Conference Playoff Predictions

Yesterday, Bryan graced us with his Eastern Conference playoff predictions. Today, I’ll answer back by taking you out West, where two days marks the difference between potentially being out of the playoffs, and securing the 4th seed.

Here we go!

Canucks vs. Blackhawks
Who I’m cheering for: Canucks

Yet another Vancouver/Chicago playoff rematch? You bet. The Blackhawks backed their way into a playoff spot, and now have the unfortunate task of taking on a hungry, president-trophy winning team out for blood. Chicago are the returning champs, but they are a shell of their former selves. You can’t say that the Blackhawks’ offense is not up to the challenge, however, as they can hold their own in comparison to Vancouver’s. Will Luongo’s regular season success for the ‘Nucks hold over for the playoffs this year, or will Chicago bounce them once again in the post season?

I say Chicago’s luck has run out, Vancouver in 6

Red Wings vs. Coyotes
Who I’m cheering for: Coyotes

Another rematch and chance for revenge out west. The Wings managed to take care of the ‘Yotes last year, but not for lack of effort from Phoenix. They managed to push Detroit to game 7 before seeing their way out. Dave Tippett’s coaching has done wonders for the Coyotes, but the Wing’s continous playoff success will be hard to overcome. Especially with Phoenix’s lack of solid offense. Phoenix has some impressive goaltending that will out perform Howard’s, but I don’t think it will be enough.

Red Wings in 6

Sharks vs. Kings
Who I’m cheering for: gun to head, Sharks

I’m sure every non-Canadian hockey outlet has already pointed this out to you, but California has more teams in the playoffs than does Canada. So it only makes sense that two of them would meet up. And in the first round none the less! Assuming the Ducks advance, it would be interesting to see either of these teams meet Anaheim down the road. Either a 2009 playoff rematch for the Sharks, or the first time the Kings meet up with their rivals from down the freeway in the post season.

Of course, it won’t be easy for San Jose or Los Angeles to get there. The teams split their wins over the six times they met this season. However, Los Angeles has lost a lot of its punch with Kopitar’s injury. And who knows when Justin Williams is coming back. On the other hand, known choke-artists San Jose don’t have much luck in the post season, now do they?

The series goes to game seven, and then the building collapses on both teams.
Or, more likely, Sharks in 7.

Ducks vs. Predators
Who I’m cheering for: Let’s Go Ducks!

Okay, obviously I have a bias here. But I will say this is definitely a first round matchup I would have rather my Ducks avoided. The teams met up twice this year, and Nashville took the regular season series 3-1. Pekka Rinne is an unsolved puzzle for Anaheim. In fact, the one game the Ducks were able to take from the Preds came against Rinne’s backup.

On the bright side for the Ducks, Nashville’s offense is almost non-existent. And even though they were able to solve Hiller during the regular season, they don’t know whether they’ll be seeing Emery or Ellis in goal for Anaheim, and might not have the same luck against either one. The Ducks clearly have the offensive advantage in league-leading goal scorer Corey Perry, along with other powerhouses like Selanne, Bobby Ryan, and Getlaf. If the Ducks can get some secondary (and even some tertiary) scoring, they might be able to overcome Rinne.

It certainly doesn’t hurt Anaheim however that the Preds have gone to the playoffs 5 times but have won exactly 0 series. That can’t rest easy on Nashville’s minds, I imagine.

Ducks in 5.

Agree? Disagree? Discuss it on the forums!

Bryan’s Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions

The real season begins!

Capitals vs. Rangers
Who I’m cheering for: the Rangers

While the Capitals are on a tear, the Rangers seem to always have their number. If the Rangers can keep the games low scoring and more of a grinding type of game (y’know, playoff hockey) then I think they have a good chance to take the Capitals into a long series and beat them. I think the Capitals have learned somewhat how to play defensively. I don’t think they’ve done enough work, though. I also think their numbers are inflated by being in a weak division. I honestly think the Capitals have enough want and skill to make it past the first round, though.

Capitals in 5, Rangers shit the bed.

Flyers vs. Sabres
Who I’m cheering for: Sabres

Goaltending. Ryan Miller will play. He can steal a game by himself. Bobrovsky isn’t used to a season this long, let alone the playoffs. He also hasn’t achieved one shutout this year. I think this series goes to who can get to the goaltenders. Buffalo has great depth in scoring. They have small forwards that can get around defenders like Pronger (that’s even if he’s playing) and then the Flyers don’t have the goaltending to stop it. The Flyers crash the net but a goalie like Miller can handle that better than most. Buffalo is also playing great hockey right now. I think if there’s one big upset that comes in the first round in the East. This is it.

Sabres in 6, Flyers bring back Ron Hextall next year.

 

 

Bruins vs. Canadiens
Who I’m cheering for: Bruins

Man, I hate both of these teams. The Canadiens always seem to beat the Bruins. I really hate this Canadiens team and that doesn’t come from last year’s playoffs. I just can’t stand a lot of those players. I never thought I would ever hope for Tim Thomas to do something good… but I want the Bruins to win in four with no goals allowed.

Canadiens in 7.

Penguins vs. Lightning
Who I’m cheering for: The Pens, duh.

I can see the Lightning winning the first few games and scaring the Penguins’ fan base. St. Louis is a force and the Lightning should be rallying behind their assistant coach being diagnosed with a brain tumor. However, I think the Penguins’ defense is just too consistently good to lose a whole series to the Lightning. While the Lightning score a lot of goals, they also give up almost as many. Winning 6-5 games in the playoffs doesn’t work. The Penguins have the depth to get 2-3 goals a game while their tremendous depth on defense should be able to shut down St. Louis and Stamkos.

Another element of this is goaltending. Fleury wins games (36-20). Roloson went 24-25 this year.

Pens in 7.
if Crosby comes back, Pens in 5.

Agree? Disagree? Discuss it on the forums!

PREDICTION WEDNESDAY: jer’s 2010-11 Playoff Picture/Team Rankings

Last year I declared the day before the 2009-10 season started (also a Wednesday, oddly enough) “Prediction Wednesday” and posted my prognostications for the 2010 playoff rankings. The results were mixed. On the message board and on twitter some other people joined in and posted their predictions.

Well here it is, Wednesday before the season starts, and I thought it’d be time to start it all over again. here our my predictions for the end of the regular season, start of the playoffs rankings.

 Western Conference   Eastern Conference
1 Vancouver Canucks   1 Washington Capitals
2 Detroit Red Wings   2 Boston Bruins
3 San Jose Sharks   3 Pittsburgh Penguins
4 Nashville Predators   4 New Jersey Devils
5 Phoenix Coyotes   5 Buffalo Sabres
6 Chicago Blackhawks   6 Philadelphia Flyers
7 Anaheim Ducks   7 Montreal Canadiens
8 Colorado Avalanche   8 Ottawa Senators
9 Los Angeles Kings   9 Tampa Bay Lightning
10 St. Louis Blues   10 Atlanta Thrashers
11 Columbus Blue Jackets   11 New York Islanders
12 Calgary Flames   12 New York Rangers
13 Dallas Stars   13 Toronto Maple Leafs
14 Edmonton Oilers   14 Florida Panthers
15 Minnesota Wild   15 Carolina Hurricanes

Some of these picks are pretty safe, and others you might consider a little headscratching. Either way, keep in mind that they’re only predictions and I’m just a regular old chud who doesn’t know what he’s talking about, like any of you. Feel free to jump on the forums and post your own predictions, playoff-based or otherwise.

Pond Scum episode 5 – Stanley Cup Finals!


YouTube - - Pond Scum Episode 5

Watch jer drink tequila and make final round predictions in the latest episode of Pond Scum!

Pond Scum Episode 4 – Conference Finals Predictions


YouTube - Pond Scum #4

don’t forget to check out Out of the Pond at: http://outothepond.blogspot.com

Pond Scum Episode 3 – 2nd Round Playoff Predictions

This video is a lot more boring because it was quick and rushed. i’ll try harder next time.


YouTube - - Pond Scum Ep. 3

jer’s First Round 2010 Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions


YouTube - Pond Scum Episode 2

Her’es Episode 2 of POND SCUM, a video blog I should never have started. If you’re too lazy too watch the video, you can just read my playoff predictions after the jump

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How I Did: Grading My Preseason Playoff Predictions.

So back in September, one day before the start of the 2009-10 NHL season, I made some bold Stanley Cup Playoff predictions. So bold in fact, that I guaranteed that my predictions were “the pure, unvarnished truth.” So how did I do? Let’s start with the Western Conference (for the record, we’re just looking at the playoff spots in each conference, because no one cares about the failures who didn’t make it):

Western Conference
     
PREDICTIONS   ACTUAL
     
1. Sharks
1. Sharks
2. Blackhawks
2. Blackhawks
3. Canucks
3. Canucks
4. Red Wings
4. Coyotes
5. Ducks
5. Red Wings
6. Stars
6. Kings
7. Flames
7. Predators
8. Oilers
8. Avalanche

Western Conference
     
PREDICTIONS   ACTUAL
     
1. Sharks
1. Sharks
2. Blackhawks
2. Blackhawks
3. Canucks
3. Canucks
4. Red Wings
4. Coyotes
5. Ducks
5. Red Wings
6. Stars
6. Kings
7. Flames
7. Predators
8. Oilers
8. Avalanche

Perhaps not so good, though I did correctly predict 50% of the teams that would make it in, and I get extra points for getting the top three division champ seeds correct. To be fair, those I got right were pretty safe choices. I should lose points for saying that the Oilers would make it to 8th seed, when in fact they finished last not only in the conference, but in the entire league. But the Kings? The ‘Yotes? How the shit does that happen? There’s no way I could have predicted any deals with the devil, so I get a pass on those.

Fuck it, I get C+ for Western Conference Predictions.

How about the Eastern Conference?

Eastern Conference
     
PREDICTIONS   ACTUAL
     
1. Capitals
1. Capitals
2. Bruins
2. Devils
3. Flyers
3. Sabres
4. Devils
4. Penguins
5. Penguins
5. Senators
6. Canadiens
6. Bruins
7. Hurricanes
7. Flyers
8. Maple Leafs
8. Canadiens

My top 6 predictions made it in, not bad. Of course, only one of them seeded as I stated, but you can’t win them all. It was a lot easier to guess the Eastern Conference, because the whole conference sucks and there’s no real competition. Need proof? The 8th-seeded Canadiens made it to the playoffs with a mere 88 points. However in the West, the Avalanche had to rack up 95 points to take the 8th and final spot. Actually, not only would the Canadiens not have made it in out West, but neither would the Flyers, the Bruins, or the Senators.

But I digress.

A- for Eastern Conference Predictions, even without proper seeding.

So how could I guarantee my predictions as the word of the gods in September, yet be pretty far off come April (and still give myself some pretty generous grades)?

I intentionally gave you all the wrong predictions so that you’d rush to Vegas and place your bets, only making the odds that much better for me when I placed my bids the RIGHT way. The real seeding I clearly knew all along, and now I’m filthy rich, shitbags!

Stay tuned for my Stanley Cup first-round predictions, which will be posted soon (before the games start, with plenty of time to get your Vegas bets in).

Prediction Wednesday: Jer’s 2009-10 Team Ranking Predictions

With one day to go before the 2009-10 season kicks off, it’s time for hockey blogs and fans alike to spit out a flurry of predictions in hopes of being vindicated come the hoisting of Lord Stanley’s Mug come June. We here at HockeyPunx want in on the action too.

But I won’t lie to you, reader, what I’m about to drop on you isn’t merely prediction, but instead the pure, unvarnished truth; from God’s lips to my ears (to your eyes). After reading this, if you don’t immediately start placing bets in Vegas and off-shore gambling rings, you’re a god damn fool.

Without further ado, here is how all the teams will be ranking in their respective conference come season end. Fact.

Western Conference

  1. Sharks
  2. Blackhawks
  3. Canucks
  4. Red Wings
  5. Ducks
  6. Stars
  7. Flames
  8. Oilers
  9. Blue Jackets
  10. Wild
  11. Blues
  12. Kings
  13. Predators
  14. Avalanche
  15. Coyotes
Eastern Conference

  1. Capitals
  2. Bruins
  3. Flyers
  4. Devils
  5. Penguins
  6. Canadiens
  7. Hurricanes
  8. Maple Leafs
  9. Rangers
  10. Panthers
  11. Senators
  12. Sabres
  13. Islanders
  14. Lightening
  15. Thrashers

I will not even attempt to justify my rankings, as the stat sheet at the end of the season never tries to justify itself. The stat sheet simply acts as a reflection of the facts, and my “predictions” are exactly that.

Note: If any of you decide to take this seriously and think I know any more than the next guy when it comes to telling what the future holds, then you’re a stupid shitbag and shouldn’t be reading this to begin with. You should be in your bedroom coloring.

Hey, why not make some of your own predictions today? Post them in the comments below or on our forums?